The 2022 update of Baseball Worth Rewatch Index is already available. Using Retrosheet’s play-by-play data the algorithm graded the most exciting games of the season according to parameters as unexpected outcome, total amount of winning probability added, pitching performance or rivalry. Let’s take a look at the top of the list. >>> “The most exciting baseball games of 2022 (according to BWRI)”
Category: Sports
Introducing BWRI: an index to choose a good baseball game to rewatch
Summary
I really enjoy rewatching games during the offseason, so I set up an index that helps to choose which game to rewatch without knowing anything else than the teams and the day. Using R, I arranged an algorithm that takes account of changes in win probability during the game to make it possible to bring out exciting games to watch.
>>> “Introducing BWRI: an index to choose a good baseball game to rewatch”Five last minutes are a mine of points for Real Madrid
FC Barcelona would have won two more championships considering the games to end at minute 85
If you’re a Barça fan this should sound very familiar to you: it’s Sunday in the afternoon, you were at the movies. As you leave the theater and switch on the cell phone you get some messages about Real Madrid’s game. Real isn’t winning and there are just 20 minutes left. Don’t trust, but step into a bar to watch the rest of the game though. Let’s go, maybe there’s some good news on the way. 75 minutes and still a tie game, 80 minutes, 85 minutes, almost… but in the end Real Madrid scores, and you go home upset because of a game you were not supposed to have watched. Among the most common Barça supporters mantra’s, there is the one which says that Real Madrid scores last-gasp winners very often. What truth is there in this complaint?
>>> “Five last minutes are a mine of points for Real Madrid”
Why it’s best to bet for underdogs
The commission that bookmakers make you pay for betting it’s quite different depending on the chances of win
An easy search on the net is enough to find thousands of sources making reference to how bookmakers do to earn money, regardless of the outcomes in sports events. They do that in many different ways, but the most basic is simple to understand: they charge a kind of commission that it’s already included on the odds they offer you to win. >>> “Why it’s best to bet for underdogs”
The field factor and the referee’s influence
The referees award almost the same fouls to home teams as to away ones, but away players are sent off more easily
Finished the previous post telling about one of my reference books here in this blog: Scorecasting: The hidden influences behind how sports are played and games are won. One of the studies that the book mentions was made by two Spanish economists that in 2005 set out to see how peer pressure affects human decisions. Luis Garicano and Ignacio Palacios-Huerta counted the extra minutes added by referees in the Spanish league, taking into account the result of the score in the 90th minute. >>> “The field factor and the referee’s influence”
Playing at home is no longer the advantage it used to be
A study of every match of the 5 most important European football leagues since 1970 up to nowadays. Overall, at the end of the 70’s teams retained almost 70% of home points, whereas in the last seasons this figure has come down even below 60%
To start this blog site I get back an article I published on the newspaper ARA on august 2015. A study about the scores of the 5 main European football leagues, based on a database I made up using datasets from football-data.co.uk. I’ve split it into two halves. Here comes the first one: >>> “Playing at home is no longer the advantage it used to be”